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Rise of the new Russia – Analysis – News

Following translation of an article by Igor Panarin, published in the Moscow Times. Its author – a former analyst of the KGB and now – the dean of the Faculty of International Relations at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

United States, located in the epicenter of the global financial tsunami, most affected in 2009 in the worst-case scenario, which has about 50 % chance of implementation, the U.S. and the entire U.S. economy crash in November. As a result, the terrible political and economic problems could lead to fierce competition among the states in which the more affluent states will withhold their funds from the federal government and would be in danger of secession and civil war. This, in turn, could lead to the disintegration of the country into six parts by the summer of 2010, when major foreign powers will begin to pick up their pieces of the fallen giant. Under this scenario, California and six western states should be covered under the Chinese influence; Alaska go to Russia; otoydut Hawaii to Japan or China, 15 states and the Great Western prairies will be under the influence of Canadian, Texas and eight other southern states will be under the influence of the Mexican; and eight eastern coastal state could join the European Union.

Russia could also take advantage of the crisis in the U.S., expanding their influence and power in both local and global scale in the following areas:

– Pacific doctrine.

Russia needs in the regions, which could carry out a breakthrough in relation to technological innovation, and Primorye – the leading candidate for this role. While maintaining its military and political significance, Primorye should be a powerful financial and economic outpost in the Asia-Pacific region in the 21 st century. By 2012 it could and should become one of the main centers of international business center for investment and innovation.

The political future of the leaders of Russia, as well as its ability to become a leader in innovation, will depend largely on whether the political elite of the Primorye region – with the support of the Kremlin – to adapt to the realities of the world policy.

This is, above all, means support for the concept of the five «and» – intelligence – in addition to the four «and» President Medvedev – institutions, infrastructure, investment and innovation. All this should lead to the development of cooperation between the government and the private sector, which guarantees Russia views the world leader.

– The former Soviet republic.

collapse of the U.S. should lead to the formation of political and military vacuum in the former U.S. allies in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia should announce his intention to return to the foreign policy of Catherine the Great.

– the Middle East.

Russia will have to create a strategic cooperation with Turkey, supported Russia in its war with Georgia in August. Russia should take all the former American military bases on Turkish territory. In addition, Russia should take advantage of the departure of the U.S. from Iraq and Afghanistan by deploying troops there the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to ensure peace and stability.

– South Asia.

Russia should try to become the main arbiter in the dispute between India and Pakistan. It would also be useful to involve Iran and China to the settlement process.

– South America and the Caribbean.

Moscow should concentrate to strengthen their ties and influence in Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba. Russia should send a huge economic and military means to these three countries.

In 2010, should be the restoration of the Russian radar station in Lourdes in Cuba, which left Moscow in 2001 with 750 technical staff and 2000 soldiers. At the December meeting of the leaders of 33 South American States, held for the first time without the participation of the United States, Mexican President Felipe Calderon proposed the establishment of an organization called the Union of South American and Caribbean countries that will contribute to political and economic change on the continent. If the formation of such organizations, Russia should strive to become strategic, economic, and information and ideological partner.

expand its influence in these areas, Russia can integrate Eurasia and strengthen their political, economic and military influence in the world. Sunset U.S. gives Russia a great opportunity to replace the United States as a leading world power.

Instead comment

After reading the above article I. Panarin immediately raises at least a few questions: 1. No jokes the author? 2. Is this not a provocation to the old KGB-style shnom? 3. Is the Mr. Panarin in today’s Russia, or may have moved to the moon? On the other hand, are written so they like the most ordinary bredyatinu that, of course, no newspaper would not put this article, if its author was the dean of the Faculty of International Relations.

Everyone is clear that if any country and is destined to disintegrate as a result of the current crisis, then it will not be America and Russia. It would be interesting to meet with Mr. Panarin somewhere through godik, unless, of course, he still will be within reach! Will he ashamed of their own, one may say so, the prophecy?

Today, the view of most readers panarinskogo opusa perhaps best expressed David Lerma from Houston, wrote in the same Moscow Times: «While Panarin paper and is suitable for a good fiction novel, it represents the complete nonsense. It is obvious that the author had never been in the United States. Maybe he should write about a little green man from Mars ».